Sat, Apr 6, 2013·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 0, Phoenix Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 010 | 09 | 024 |
| PHX | 17 | 318 | 03 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46PHXMikkel BoedkerGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 3:06PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Shane Doan, Radim Vrbata · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 7:04PHXBoyd GordonAssists: David Moss · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 14:37PHXShane DoanAssists: Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 15:59PHXDerek Morris: Interference2 min
- P1 18:44COLDavid Van Der Gulik: Interference2 min
- P2 2:18COLMark Olver: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 15:57PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P3 0:34COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 3:59PHXKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
- P3 16:40COLJohn Mitchell: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:00PHXMikkel Boedker: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBordeleau – McGinn – Malone2:01
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Van Der Gulik – Palushaj – Olver4:01
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McLeod – Landeskog10:29
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Bordeleau – Malone – O'Reilly4:20
xG 0.07–0.34 (16%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Elliott3:29
xG 0.20–0.12 (64%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Elliott2:13
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hejda – Elliott6:47
xG 0.02–0.15 (14%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vrbata – Hanzal11:35
xG 1.00–0.45 (69%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Moss – Gordon – Klinkhammer9:33
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Chipchura – Brown8:11
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Vermette – Conner – Boedker9:11
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMorris – Klesla15:03
xG 1.09–0.24 (82%)attempts 17–8goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson13:32
xG 0.67–0.10 (87%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Yandle – Schlemko14:56
xG 0.48–0.67 (42%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).