Sat, Apr 6, 2013·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 09 | 114 | 238 |
| VAN | 28 | 210 | 14 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34VANDan HamhuisAssists: Alexandre Burrows, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:57VANDale WeiseAssists: Jason Garrison, Maxim Lapierre · Deflected, 0.01 xG0–2
- P1 13:49CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Matt Stajan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 7:24VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 19:33VANAlexander EdlerPPAssists: Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 10:49CGYAlex TanguayAssists: Matt Stajan, Lee Stempniak · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 19:49VANHenrik SedinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:03CGYTim Jackman: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:03VANZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30CGYBrian McGrattan: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30VANTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:30VANTom Sestito: Instigator2 min
- P1 2:30VANTom Sestito: Misconduct10 min
- P1 16:44VANKevin Bieksa: Holding2 min
- P2 9:23CGYMichael Cammalleri: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:29VANDaniel Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:29CGYTim Jackman: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:34VANAlexander Edler: Holding2 min
- P3 19:30VANKevin Bieksa: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Stajan – Stempniak10:18
xG 0.87–0.19 (83%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Begin – McGrattan – Jackman3:18
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Backlund – Reinhart – Cervenka9:23
xG 0.25–0.29 (47%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Horak8:48
xG 0.28–0.45 (38%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Giordano15:54
xG 0.98–0.44 (69%)attempts 21–8goals 2–2
- Carson – Brodie2:28
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Sarich – Brodie11:02
xG 0.16–0.03 (82%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows12:48
xG 0.73–0.50 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 2–2
- Roy – Higgins – Hansen10:45
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Sestito – Weise2:53
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Raymond – Ebbett – Kassian8:03
xG 0.06–0.46 (11%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Edler15:43
xG 0.54–0.66 (45%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Barker – Tanev13:03
xG 0.12–0.41 (23%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Garrison14:38
xG 0.26–0.85 (23%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).