Sun, Apr 7, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 5, San Jose Sharks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 216 | 210 | 02 | 1 | 534 |
| SJS | 110 | 313 | 011 | 02 | 0 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:39SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:06SJSBrent BurnsAssists: Justin Braun, Antti Niemi · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 3:41DALEric NystromAssists: Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 4:07DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Jamie Benn, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 7:48SJSTJ GaliardiAssists: Raffi Torres · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 15:31SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Raffi Torres, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 6:07DALAlex ChiassonAssists: Ray Whitney, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 9:14DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Matt Fraser, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 2. DAL Matt Fraser stopped
- 3. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn scored
- 5. SJS Brent Burns stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:47SJSJoe Pavelski: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:49DALBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:04SJSAdam Burish: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:07SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 10:45DALBrenden Dillon: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:00DALEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Eakin – Fraser7:45
xG 0.79–0.27 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Wandell – Roussel – Garbutt3:50
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Nystrom11:27
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Whitney – Benn – Chiasson14:38
xG 0.61–1.58 (28%)attempts 19–19goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Daley15:19
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
- Rome – Larsen9:56
xG 0.24–0.45 (35%)attempts 9–15goals 1–3
- Goligoski – Dillon18:14
xG 0.84–1.53 (35%)attempts 19–20goals 3–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestTorres – Pavelski – Galiardi11:53
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Gomez – Burish – Desjardins4:19
xG 0.01–0.10 (9%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Marleau – Couture – Wingels9:07
xG 0.35–0.89 (28%)attempts 8–15goals 1–3
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun9:45
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 1–1
- Boyle – Irwin8:00
xG 0.38–0.18 (68%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Stuart – Demers13:46
xG 0.40–1.03 (28%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).