Sun, Apr 7, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Nashville Predators 3, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 19 | 16 | 322 |
| CHI | 117 | 112 | 311 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:34CHIAndrew ShawAssists: Michael Frolik, Niklas Hjalmarsson · Slap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 17:16NSHNick SpalingAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 2:09CHIBryan BickellAssists: Viktor Stalberg, Michal Rozsival · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 5:54NSHShea WeberAssists: Nick Spaling · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 6:54NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Matt Halischuk, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 9:37CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Duncan Keith, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–3
- P3 10:32CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Andrew Shaw · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:28CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (2)
- P1 9:40NSHRich Clune: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 5:54CHIAndrew Shaw: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Legwand
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Beck15:07
xG 0.49–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Yip – Mueller – Butler3:29
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Mueller – Butler2:02
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Kostitsyn – Halischuk – Spaling12:36
xG 0.47–0.86 (35%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Weber – Josi19:30
xG 0.81–1.00 (45%)attempts 15–21goals 3–2
- Klein – Bartley18:49
xG 0.36–0.58 (39%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Gill – Blum10:32
xG 0.12–0.82 (13%)attempts 4–21goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Bollig – Shaw10:20
xG 0.59–0.07 (89%)attempts 16–3goals 1–1
- Handzus – Bickell – Stalberg9:28
xG 0.41–0.16 (72%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad4:09
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 4–5goals 2–1
- Carcillo – Kane – Kruger9:01
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson19:56
xG 0.93–0.38 (71%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Rozsival – Oduya16:11
xG 0.85–0.46 (65%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Seabrook – Leddy17:02
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 16–14goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).