Sun, Apr 7, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Los Angeles Kings 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 09 | 210 | 116 | 03 | 1 | 338 |
| ANA | 18 | 17 | 15 | 02 | 3 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54ANAKyle PalmieriAssists: Matt Beleskey, David Steckel · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 5:59LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Dustin Brown · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:12ANACorey PerryAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Sheldon Souray · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 19:30LAKJeff CarterAssists: Mike Richards, Brad Richardson · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 4:54ANAMatt BeleskeyPPAssists: Sheldon Souray, Saku Koivu · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–3
- P3 16:15LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Bobby Ryan scored
- 2. LAK Mike Richards stopped
- 3. ANA Saku Koivu scored
- 4. LAK Jeff Carter scored
- 5. ANA Corey Perry scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:37LAKJarret Stoll: Boarding2 min
- P1 5:34ANABobby Ryan: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:34LAKDrew Doughty: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:54LAKKeaton Ellerby: Interference2 min
- P1 12:38ANASheldon Souray: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:36LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43ANAMatthew Lombardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:27LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Brown – Kopitar14:59
xG 0.93–0.32 (74%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King11:22
xG 0.28–0.03 (89%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Fraser – Richardson – Nolan7:28
xG 0.14–0.32 (30%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Clifford11:48
xG 0.16–0.35 (31%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Doughty18:40
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 22–5goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Doughty2:12
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Ellerby9:53
xG 0.35–0.30 (54%)attempts 21–4goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Steckel – Beleskey – Etem2:33
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Selanne – Lombardi – Etem8:53
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
- Koivu – Dvorak – Winnik11:32
xG 0.33–0.36 (48%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Perry – Ryan – Cogliano12:04
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 9–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Sbisa15:28
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Lydman – Fowler16:21
xG 0.18–0.40 (31%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
- Souray – Beauchemin16:02
xG 0.42–0.99 (30%)attempts 10–25goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).