Tue, Apr 9, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Philadelphia Flyers 1, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 15 | 014 | 08 | 127 |
| NYI | 18 | 113 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:36NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Brad Boyes, John Tavares · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 17:42NYIMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Colin McDonald, Keith Aucoin · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 18:23NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Matt Moulson, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:51NYICasey CizikasENAssists: Matt Martin, Colin McDonald · Snap, 0.75 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:49NYIMichael Grabner: Elbowing2 min
- P2 6:01PHIBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:01NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:06PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P3 19:19NYIJesse Joensuu: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Read8:01
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek16:21
xG 0.68–0.61 (53%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- Knuble – Gagne – Fedotenko10:38
xG 0.39–0.38 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Gagne – Simmonds – Schenn2:17
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gervais11:52
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Schenn – Lauridsen9:39
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Huskins – Gustafsson15:39
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – McDonald – Grabner9:21
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares17:41
xG 0.71–0.48 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey13:08
xG 0.63–0.40 (61%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
- Joensuu – Martin – Cizikas7:27
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic18:22
xG 0.85–0.53 (62%)attempts 18–16goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Hickey17:23
xG 0.67–0.50 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Carkner – Streit11:41
xG 0.49–0.44 (53%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).