Tue, Apr 9, 2013·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 211 | 08 | 314 | 533 |
| CAR | 29 | 09 | 110 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06CARJoe CorvoPPAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:38PITRobert BortuzzoAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Craig Adams · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 13:49PITBrenden MorrowAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Pascal Dupuis · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 15:33CARBobby SanguinettiAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 2:00CARRiley NashAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.37 xG2–3
- P3 9:49PITBeau BennettAssists: Craig Adams, Deryk Engelland · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 10:02PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Jarome Iginla · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 19:58PITPascal DupuisENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:02CARKevin Westgarth: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:02PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:29PITCraig Adams: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:03CAREric Staal: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:22PITChris Kunitz: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:27CARRiley Nash: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:58CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Jokinen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAdams – Glass – Bennett5:13
xG 0.23–0.05 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 1–1
- Iginla – Kunitz – Malkin9:21
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Morrow – Dupuis – Jokinen10:09
xG 0.46–0.58 (45%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Sutter9:37
xG 0.47–0.80 (37%)attempts 16–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEaton – Orpik18:11
xG 1.29–0.54 (70%)attempts 20–15goals 2–0
- Murray – Niskanen14:36
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bortuzzo9:32
xG 0.56–0.96 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Nash3:27
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Staal – Dalpe – Skinner12:54
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Brent5:48
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty12:15
xG 0.42–0.94 (31%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcBain – Sanguinetti14:50
xG 1.33–0.56 (70%)attempts 20–14goals 2–2
- Gleason – Faulk16:34
xG 0.39–0.99 (28%)attempts 17–17goals 0–2
- Corvo – Harrison16:25
xG 0.26–1.21 (18%)attempts 11–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).