Tue, Apr 9, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 3, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 210 | 16 | 327 |
| MTL | 17 | 013 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:44MTLLars EllerAssists: Brandon Prust, Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 7:50WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:36WSHEric FehrAssists: Jack Hillen, Steve Oleksy · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 5:33WSHJack HillenGWGAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 16:38MTLLars EllerAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Alex Galchenyuk · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
Penalties (2)
- P1 10:54MTLMax Pacioretty: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00WSHAlex Ovechkin: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Beagle – Volpatti2:38
xG 0.20–0.02 (90%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson17:09
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
- Ribeiro – Wolski – Brouwer2:17
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Wolski – Beagle4:03
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Erskine – Carlson17:32
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 10–27goals 1–1
- Hillen – Oleksy13:41
xG 0.60–0.84 (42%)attempts 19–14goals 2–0
- Green – Alzner17:13
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPrust – Eller – Galchenyuk9:04
xG 1.25–0.59 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Ryder – Eller – Galchenyuk2:44
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher15:23
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 21–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque3:40
xG 0.06–0.01 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Beaulieu8:44
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Markov – Drewiske13:07
xG 0.62–0.53 (54%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Markov6:44
xG 0.15–0.06 (70%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).