Tue, Apr 9, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Los Angeles Kings 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 017 | 05 | 130 |
| DAL | 111 | 010 | 410 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:13LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Mike Richards · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:16DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Aaron Rome, Vernon Fiddler · Slap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 0:52DALRay WhitneyGWGAssists: Alex Chiasson, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 7:58DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Stephane Robidas · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 11:06DALRay WhitneyAssists: Loui Eriksson, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–4
- P3 13:56DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Eric Nystrom, Trevor Daley · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 0:34DALLoui Eriksson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:34DALLoui Eriksson: High sticking2 min
- P1 9:10LAKJordan Nolan: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:03LAKDrew Doughty: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:40DALAaron Rome: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:40DALAaron Rome: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:24DALStephane Robidas: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:11LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:18LAKBrad Richardson: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:22DALAlex Chiasson: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Richards – Penner7:21
xG 0.44–0.13 (77%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King9:56
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Richards – Richardson – Nolan2:35
xG 0.04–0.04 (54%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Carter – Penner – Clifford2:16
xG 0.05–0.06 (47%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Voynov13:33
xG 0.69–0.45 (61%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Ellerby8:10
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Doughty2:16
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Fiddler – Nystrom7:29
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 3–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn3:27
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Wandell – Roussel – Garbutt4:06
xG 0.19–0.04 (84%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Eakin – Fraser10:15
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Daley12:56
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 17–12goals 4–0
- Rome – Larsen13:16
xG 0.56–0.36 (61%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dillon14:46
xG 0.11–0.58 (16%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).