Wed, Apr 10, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Boston Bruins 5, New Jersey Devils 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 38 | 14 | 16 | 518 |
| NJD | 012 | 26 | 210 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:10BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Brad Marchand · Backhand, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 4:51BOSDaniel PailleSHAssists: Rich Peverley · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–0
- P1 8:12BOSGregory CampbellSHAssists: Andrew Ference, Rich Peverley · Deflected, 0.01 xG3–0
- P2 3:06BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: David Krejci, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–0
- P2 11:07NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Steve Sullivan · Deflected, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 18:12NJDTravis ZajacSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 5:58NJDAndy GreeneAssists: Adam Henrique, Steve Bernier · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 7:33BOSTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Daniel Paille, Dennis Seidenberg · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–3
- P3 19:23NJDMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Marek Zidlicky · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:48BOSJohnny Boychuk: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:21BOSZdeno Chara: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 3:58NJDMarek Zidlicky: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P1 4:14BOSDennis Seidenberg: Illegal check to head2 min
- P1 7:02BOSNathan Horton: Holding2 min
- P2 2:11NJDAndrei Loktionov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 2:17BOSJohnny Boychuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:24NJDDavid Clarkson: Holding2 min
- P2 6:45BOSZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:11NJDAnton Volchenkov: Elbowing5 min
- P2 15:11NJDAnton Volchenkov: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 10:26BOSTyler Seguin: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:21BOSTyler Seguin: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Loktionov won the faceoff against Krejci
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Campbell – Marchand6:41
xG 0.51–0.20 (72%)attempts 3–6goals 1–1
- Kelly – Paille – Seguin4:57
xG 0.02–0.01 (62%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Peverley – Caron3:29
xG 0.04–0.16 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:49
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Seidenberg6:24
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk2:11
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Bartkowski3:16
xG 0.26–0.07 (78%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestBernier – Gionta – Carter5:32
xG 0.37–0.20 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ponikarovsky – Clarkson – Loktionov6:43
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zubrus – D'Agostini – Henrique8:20
xG 0.25–0.41 (37%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Elias – Sullivan – Zajac9:12
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Zidlicky14:37
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Fayne – Greene11:26
xG 0.59–0.48 (55%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Zidlicky – Greene2:28
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).