Wed, Apr 10, 2013·Madison Square Garden, New York
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 011 | 15 | 15 | 04 | 0 | 225 |
| NYR | 08 | 210 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:42TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Slap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 10:55NYRCarl HagelinAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 16:43NYRRyan McDonaghAssists: Derick Brassard, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 8:05TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Snap, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NYR Rick Nash stopped
- 2. TOR Tyler Bozak stopped
- 3. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 4. TOR Nazem Kadri stopped
- 5. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 6. TOR Mikhail Grabovski stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:06NYRRyane Clowe: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:06TORMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 3:32NYRMichael Del Zotto: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:09TORColton Orr: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:23TORCarl Gunnarsson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:58TORDion Phaneuf: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:28NYRRyane Clowe: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Hamilton – Komarov8:01
xG 0.41–0.05 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Orr – Grabovski – McLaren3:32
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Kulemin – Kadri7:40
xG 0.82–0.90 (48%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:06
xG 0.80–1.06 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gunnarsson16:44
xG 0.96–0.49 (66%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Franson – Fraser12:15
xG 0.83–0.63 (57%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Liles – Franson2:20
xG 0.09–0.21 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Clowe – Hagelin2:34
xG 0.72–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Clowe – Boyle3:53
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Callahan – Brassard – Hagelin4:24
xG 0.26–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Boyle – Brassard – Hagelin3:54
xG 0.27–0.25 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Del Zotto14:59
xG 1.41–0.52 (73%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Eminger – McDonagh2:02
xG 0.12–0.03 (79%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto2:25
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).