Wed, Apr 10, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 010 | 212 | 110 | 332 |
| EDM | 08 | 07 | 115 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:37PHXBoyd GordonAssists: David Moss, Rob Klinkhammer · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 9:00PHXAntoine VermetteGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 7:49EDMNail YakupovAssists: Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:51PHXDavid MossPPAssists: Boyd Gordon · Snap, 0.05 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:18EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:20EDMJerred Smithson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:25PHXRadim Vrbata: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:08PHXShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P2 17:45EDMAles Hemsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:09EDMNail Yakupov: Interference2 min
- P3 12:51PHXMartin Hanzal: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:27PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:27EDMNail Yakupov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:43EDMShawn Horcoff: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer11:12
xG 0.64–0.18 (78%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Vermette – Conner – Boedker10:14
xG 0.80–0.60 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal13:22
xG 0.92–0.99 (48%)attempts 20–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson14:58
xG 1.22–0.52 (70%)attempts 25–10goals 1–0
- Klesla – Stone2:17
xG 0.16–0.01 (94%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Morris – Klesla2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hemsky – Gagner – Paajarvi10:01
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Smithson – Brown – Petrell3:28
xG 0.10–0.13 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Smyth – Horcoff – Yakupov9:45
xG 0.64–0.71 (47%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Eberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:39
xG 0.41–1.12 (27%)attempts 8–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Smid – Petry14:58
xG 0.94–0.90 (51%)attempts 20–21goals 0–0
- Whitney – Schultz3:59
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz10:19
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 5–11goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).