Thu, Apr 11, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
New York Islanders 2, Boston Bruins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 19 | 119 | 08 | 236 |
| BOS | 016 | 18 | 07 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:39NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Mark Streit, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:41BOSTyler SeguinPPAssists: Gregory Campbell, Jaromir Jagr · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 13:12NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 12:26BOSDavid Krejci: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:15NYIBrad Boyes: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Bailey12:23
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares12:30
xG 0.84–0.41 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Martin – Cizikas9:22
xG 0.35–0.23 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner8:18
xG 0.50–1.41 (26%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey16:22
xG 1.53–0.43 (78%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic20:20
xG 1.06–0.54 (66%)attempts 15–21goals 0–0
- Carkner – Streit12:55
xG 0.76–1.64 (32%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKelly – Caron – Seguin6:35
xG 1.59–0.28 (85%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Peverley – Daugavins5:30
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Horton – Krejci – Seguin4:33
xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Paille – Horton – Krejci7:36
xG 0.10–0.19 (34%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Boychuk16:22
xG 0.76–0.61 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Ference – Boychuk2:25
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Bartkowski15:37
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).