Thu, Apr 11, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Ottawa Senators 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 015 | 210 | 334 |
| PHI | 17 | 07 | 011 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:20OTTZack SmithAssists: Marc Methot · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 11:44PHIClaude GirouxSHAssists: Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 14:24OTTColin GreeningPPGWGAssists: Patrick Wiercioch · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 19:53OTTDaniel AlfredssonENAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Eric Gryba · Snap, 0.76 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:45PHIKimmo Timonen: Holding2 min
- P1 10:22PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:22PHIJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:08PHIOliver Lauridsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:48OTTAndre Benoit: Interference2 min
- P3 3:19OTTCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:22PHIScott Hartnell: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:53PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hall won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad9:49
xG 0.39–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Pageau8:31
xG 0.45–0.23 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Latendresse – Turris9:27
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Neil – Kassian – Smith10:32
xG 0.52–0.57 (47%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Gryba15:38
xG 1.19–0.23 (84%)attempts 25–13goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Wiercioch10:07
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Phillips2:55
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Giroux – Voracek11:43
xG 0.53–0.23 (69%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Simmonds – Schenn3:05
xG 0.07–0.20 (27%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier6:18
xG 0.01–0.29 (5%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Fedotenko – Hartnell – Schenn6:28
xG 0.02–0.32 (5%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Timonen – Gustafsson5:43
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Lauridsen11:20
xG 0.49–0.57 (46%)attempts 4–15goals 0–0
- Huskins – Gustafsson6:17
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).