Thu, Apr 11, 2013·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
San Jose Sharks 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 111 | 08 | 110 | 01 | 2 | 330 |
| DET | 05 | 114 | 19 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35SJSPatrick MarleauSHAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 9:51DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Johan Franzen, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 2:29DETJakub KindlPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 4:00SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Dan Boyle · Deflected, 0.31 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DET Pavel Datsyuk scored
- 2. SJS Logan Couture scored
- 3. DET Damien Brunner stopped
- 4. SJS Joe Pavelski stopped
- 5. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 6. SJS Patrick Marleau scored
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:56SJSTommy Wingels: Boarding2 min
- P1 11:47DETPatrick Eaves: Interference2 min
- P2 4:38SJSMartin Havlat: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:10DETJonathan Ericsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:44DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:23SJSBrent Burns: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 3:35DETBrendan Smith: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 11:21SJSPatrick Marleau: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Datsyuk
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Torres – Wingels6:44
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Gomez – Havlat – Torres2:48
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Pavelski – Galiardi2:27
xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Galiardi4:20
xG 0.08–0.09 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Irwin10:41
xG 0.78–0.34 (70%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stuart11:07
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun9:48
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Abdelkader6:34
xG 0.36–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Brunner2:54
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Brunner2:04
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Cleary – Zetterberg – Filppula9:27
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – Smith13:03
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:31
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Kindl – DeKeyser10:58
xG 0.30–0.73 (29%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).