Thu, Apr 11, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Florida Panthers 2, Winnipeg Jets 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 011 | 07 | 227 |
| WPG | 317 | 36 | 112 | 735 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:54WPGAaron GagnonAssists: Blake Wheeler, Andrew Ladd · Deflected, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:46FLATJ BrennanAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Marcel Goc · Deflected, 0.19 xG1–1
- P1 5:04WPGEvander KaneAssists: Olli Jokinen, Grant Clitsome · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–2
- P1 6:31FLATomas FleischmannAssists: TJ Brennan · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P1 12:42WPGAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Bryan Little, Dustin Byfuglien · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 10:05WPGGrant ClitsomePPAssists: Bryan Little · Snap, 0.25 xG2–4
- P2 10:33WPGDustin ByfuglienUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG2–5
- P2 11:57WPGEvander KaneAssists: Kyle Wellwood, Zach Bogosian · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 11:52WPGChris ThorburnAssists: Ron Hainsey, Zach Bogosian · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:27FLAShawn Matthias: Holding2 min
- P2 9:56FLAGeorge Parros: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:31WPGPaul Postma: Interference2 min
- P2 17:21FLAGeorge Parros: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:21FLAGeorge Parros: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 19:00FLAErik Gudbranson: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P3 5:31WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthias won the faceoff against Ladd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Parros – Shore – Howden7:49
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann10:52
xG 0.62–0.69 (47%)attempts 12–15goals 2–1
- Skille – Matthias – Huberdeau9:27
xG 0.46–0.58 (44%)attempts 11–7goals 0–3
- Upshall – Rallo – Bjugstad9:20
xG 0.55–1.12 (33%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov9:23
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Brennan – Kulikov7:01
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 6–5goals 2–1
- Kuba – Strachan4:19
xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Gagnon – Wright4:23
xG 0.49–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Wellwood – Kane10:47
xG 1.11–0.87 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:45
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Santorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov8:56
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Bogosian6:43
xG 0.69–0.25 (74%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Postma5:48
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian6:24
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).