Fri, Apr 12, 2013·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
St. Louis Blues 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 112 | 011 | 09 | 132 |
| CBJ | 16 | 210 | 13 | 419 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:26STLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Andy McDonald, Vladimir Sobotka · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 14:32CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Matt Calvert, Adrian Aucoin · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 14:20CBJArtem AnisimovGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 18:36CBJRyan JohansenAssists: Nick Foligno, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 1:21CBJMarian GaborikAssists: Mark Letestu, Vinny Prospal · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:48CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:09CBJDalton Prout: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:40CBJVinny Prospal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:03STLKevin Shattenkirk: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 17:03STLKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:08CBJNick Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:06CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:06CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Backes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Perron8:27
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Tarasenko3:17
xG 0.09–0.13 (42%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Sobotka – Perron3:31
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- McDonald – Sobotka – Tarasenko6:13
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 11–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo17:05
xG 0.71–0.47 (60%)attempts 23–11goals 0–1
- Leopold – Shattenkirk14:15
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 15–9goals 1–2
- Polak – Pietrangelo2:00
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen11:15
xG 1.16–0.28 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Atkinson3:02
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Atkinson5:39
xG 0.22–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- MacKenzie – Dubinsky – Boll2:14
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Wisniewski14:57
xG 0.75–0.14 (84%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Johnson14:59
xG 0.51–0.54 (49%)attempts 10–19goals 2–1
- Nikitin – Prout15:47
xG 0.73–0.83 (47%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).