Fri, Apr 12, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Detroit Red Wings 2, Chicago Blackhawks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 210 | 08 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
| CHI | 011 | 17 | 110 | 00 | 2 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:11CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Duncan Keith, Bryan Bickell · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–1
- P2 15:40DETJohan FranzenPPAssists: Carlo Colaiacovo, Jakub Kindl · Deflected, 0.40 xG1–1
- P2 17:39DETCory EmmertonAssists: Drew Miller, Jordin Tootoo · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 17:03CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Johnny Oduya, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 2. DET Pavel Datsyuk stopped
- 3. CHI Patrick Kane stopped
- 4. DET Henrik Zetterberg scored
- 5. CHI Marian Hossa scored
- 6. DET Damien Brunner stopped
- 7. CHI Michal Rozsival stopped
- 8. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 9. CHI Brandon Saad scored
- 10. DET Johan Franzen stopped
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:20DETKyle Quincey: Interference2 min
- P1 9:04DETDaniel Cleary: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:33CHIMichal Handzus: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:08CHIMichal Handzus: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:18CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:01CHIViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:29CHIAndrew Shaw: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 13:43DETJakub Kindl: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Nyquist – Brunner6:15
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Franzen10:11
xG 0.25–0.45 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Tootoo – Miller – Emmerton6:24
xG 0.09–0.38 (19%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Datsyuk – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:24
xG 0.24–0.68 (26%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEricsson – DeKeyser2:42
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:24
xG 0.43–0.37 (53%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Quincey3:45
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Stalberg – Shaw8:52
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Kruger2:24
xG 0.29–0.03 (89%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Kane – Saad2:53
xG 0.07–0.03 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Sharp – Kane – Kruger6:17
xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Oduya10:08
xG 0.68–0.28 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson11:51
xG 0.40–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Leddy13:09
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).