Fri, Apr 12, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Phoenix Coyotes 2, Calgary Flames 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 18 | 010 | 111 | 02 | 231 |
| CGY | 19 | 111 | 02 | 13 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:29PHXAntoine VermetteAssists: Chris Conner, Mikkel Boedker · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P1 19:04CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dennis Wideman · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 18:52CGYLee StempniakPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano · Backhand, 0.48 xG1–2
- P3 14:56PHXKeith YandleAssists: Derek Morris, Radim Vrbata · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 4:36CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:03CGYAlex Tanguay: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:22CGYJiri Hudler: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:18PHXKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Conner – Boedker13:27
xG 1.22–0.55 (69%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Moss – Gordon – Klinkhammer11:04
xG 0.61–0.48 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Bolduc – Chipchura3:35
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Vrbata – Hanzal15:47
xG 0.35–0.45 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Stone13:34
xG 1.16–0.56 (68%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle19:14
xG 1.29–1.16 (53%)attempts 20–16goals 1–1
- Michalek – Ekman-Larsson18:56
xG 0.35–0.55 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – Hudler – Backlund5:43
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Reinhart – Baertschi3:08
xG 0.07–0.07 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Horak – Baertschi8:18
xG 0.67–0.68 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Hudler – Backlund – Baertschi2:16
xG 0.01–0.04 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Butler5:06
xG 0.60–0.34 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Sarich – Butler2:22
xG 0.14–0.02 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie10:36
xG 0.38–0.32 (54%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).