Sat, Apr 13, 2013·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 08 | 011 | 029 |
| BUF | 06 | 09 | 16 | 121 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:17BUFChristian EhrhoffGWGAssists: Kevin Porter, Steve Ott · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:31PHIOliver Lauridsen: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:31BUFPatrick Kaleta: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51PHIJay Rosehill: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 2:51BUFSteve Ott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 7:44BUFThomas Vanek: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:53PHIOliver Lauridsen: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:05BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Interference2 min
- P3 2:21BUFMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Porter won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Giroux – Voracek10:18
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier12:08
xG 0.32–0.36 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Schenn10:31
xG 0.20–0.27 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Hall – Fedotenko – Rosehill4:34
xG 0.04–0.17 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Lauridsen11:56
xG 0.35–0.25 (58%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Huskins – Foster9:22
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Gustafsson13:49
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestVanek – Hodgson – Ennis14:12
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Hecht – Kaleta – Gerbe10:27
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Ott – Porter – Flynn9:34
xG 0.07–0.14 (32%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Stafford – Scott – Foligno6:44
xG 0.01–0.41 (3%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Weber – Ruhwedel11:26
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Pardy – Pysyk15:07
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera17:43
xG 0.44–0.55 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).