Sat, Apr 13, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 113 | 016 | 08 | 137 |
| TOR | 45 | 114 | 09 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:59TORTyler BozakPPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 8:08TORLeo KomarovGWGAssists: Ryan O'Byrne, Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 10:25TORJay McClementAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–3
- P1 13:08MTLDavis DrewiskeAssists: Brendan Gallagher, David Desharnais · Snap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P1 17:06TORDion PhaneufAssists: Nazem Kadri, Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–4
- P2 4:42TORPhil KesselAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:41MTLFrancis Bouillon: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 4:30TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:30MTLBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:20TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:53TORNazem Kadri: Interference2 min
- P2 8:49TORColton Orr: Interference2 min
- P2 8:49MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 8:49TORDion Phaneuf: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 2:00MTLBrian Gionta: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:43TORMark Fraser: Interference2 min
- P3 7:21MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:17MTLFrancis Bouillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:59MTLP.K. Subban: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:21
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Halpern – Moen – Prust6:06
xG 0.28–0.09 (75%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Plekanec – Bourque7:17
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Ryder – Eller – Galchenyuk10:10
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDrewiske – Beaulieu9:00
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Gorges – Subban15:14
xG 0.44–0.26 (63%)attempts 19–11goals 0–1
- Bouillon – Markov11:35
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak8:43
xG 0.37–0.44 (45%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – McLaren4:37
xG 0.12–0.24 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Frattin – Kadri10:00
xG 0.10–0.34 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Komarov9:59
xG 0.19–0.51 (27%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Fraser12:44
xG 0.64–0.46 (58%)attempts 12–26goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson9:49
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- O'Byrne – Gardiner15:39
xG 0.29–0.85 (25%)attempts 12–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).