Sat, Apr 13, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 1, New York Islanders 0 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 07 | 03 | 12 | 120 |
| NYI | 010 | 012 | 06 | 01 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 3:11NYRDan GirardiGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Michael Del Zotto · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:14NYRArron Asham: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:14NYIColin McDonald: Elbowing2 min
- P2 4:59NYIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:15NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:22NYRRyan McDonagh: Interference2 min
- P3 2:11NYIMatt Carkner: Holding2 min
- P3 10:28NYRSteve Eminger: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:00NYIKyle Okposo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestClowe – Nash – Stepan2:36
xG 0.16–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Stepan – Zuccarello3:24
xG 0.07–0.03 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Clowe – Nash2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Asham – Pyatt – Powe4:17
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stralman – Del Zotto12:43
xG 0.25–0.38 (40%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
- Girardi – Del Zotto4:25
xG 0.04–0.30 (12%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh3:11
xG 0.11–0.44 (20%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Moulson – Tavares11:55
xG 0.84–0.31 (73%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Martin – Cizikas6:42
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Aucoin – McDonald – Grabner7:17
xG 0.29–0.03 (92%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey9:09
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarkner – Streit10:44
xG 1.18–0.17 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey15:10
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:47
xG 0.32–0.37 (46%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).