Sat, Apr 13, 2013·Verizon Center, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Washington Capitals 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 06 | 221 | 311 | 02 | 540 |
| WSH | 320 | 210 | 04 | 14 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:45WSHTroy BrouwerPPAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 18:45WSHJack HillenAssists: Jay Beagle, Steve Oleksy · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 19:22WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 2:41WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Steve Oleksy · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 3:55TBLRichard PanikAssists: Tom Pyatt, Teddy Purcell · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 5:26WSHEric FehrAssists: Mathieu Perreault · Tip-in, 0.16 xG1–5
- P2 18:47TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steven Stamkos, Benoit Pouliot · Snap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 4:23TBLRichard PanikAssists: Radko Gudas, Keith Aulie · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 8:17TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Victor Hedman, Tom Pyatt · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–5
- P3 17:25TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Tom Pyatt, Richard Panik · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–5
- OT 2:59WSHMike GreenPPGWGAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Eric Fehr · Slap, 0.02 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:40TBLNate Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:54TBLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:54TBLBenoit Pouliot: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:54TBLTeddy Purcell: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00TBLB.J. Crombeen: Misconduct10 min
- P2 7:07WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:46WSHNicklas Backstrom: Slashing2 min
- OT 1:53TBLVincent Lecavalier: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ribeiro won the faceoff against Pyatt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Purcell – Panik8:57
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 17–7goals 3–0
- St. Louis – Malone – Stamkos3:18
xG 0.35–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Pouliot6:08
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Killorn – Stamkos11:22
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 13–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Gudas10:26
xG 0.92–0.53 (63%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Brewer – Carle11:24
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Salo – Hedman14:08
xG 0.51–0.50 (50%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Fehr – Perreault11:15
xG 0.88–0.54 (62%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti7:35
xG 0.47–0.32 (60%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Erat – Brouwer10:48
xG 0.41–0.35 (54%)attempts 5–9goals 0–2
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson12:26
xG 0.35–0.85 (29%)attempts 12–17goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – Hillen3:30
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Green – Alzner13:21
xG 0.69–0.62 (53%)attempts 17–18goals 0–3
- Erskine – Carlson16:37
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).