Sat, Apr 13, 2013·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 115 | 211 | 112 | 438 |
| EDM | 111 | 011 | 07 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:26CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Sven Baertschi, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 1:44EDMLennart PetrellAssists: Ryan Jones, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 1:55CGYDennis WidemanPPGWGAssists: Tim Jackman, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.52 xG2–1
- P2 5:13CGYSven BaertschiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 10:19CGYMax ReinhartAssists: Tim Jackman, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:38CGYMichael Cammalleri: Interference2 min
- P1 13:46EDMNick Schultz: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:34EDMLadislav Smid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00EDMMagnus Paajarvi: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:46EDMJordan Eberle: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:30CGYJiri Hudler: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:59CGYMax Reinhart: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:29EDMJeff Petry: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Horak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJackman – Hudler – Reinhart9:17
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Begin – Street – Cervenka4:16
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Stempniak – Backlund – Baertschi11:01
xG 0.89–1.03 (46%)attempts 16–13goals 2–0
- Cammalleri – Aliu – Horak8:16
xG 0.14–0.37 (28%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Butler – Brodie2:20
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Giordano2:02
xG 0.12–0.11 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Carson – Butler7:08
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:02
xG 1.27–0.37 (77%)attempts 18–13goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Jones – Petrell5:27
xG 0.41–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Gagner – Paajarvi – Yakupov9:47
xG 0.38–0.40 (49%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Smyth – Smithson – Brown5:59
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWhitney – Potter8:52
xG 0.48–0.06 (89%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Schultz9:44
xG 0.94–0.56 (62%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Potter – Smid2:00
xG 0.32–0.03 (92%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).