Sat, Apr 13, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Anaheim Ducks 1, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 01 | 18 | 011 | 120 |
| LAK | 16 | 13 | 09 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Trevor Lewis, Jarret Stoll · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 3:07ANARyan GetzlafSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 19:02LAKMike RichardsPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:29ANARadek Dvorak: Interference2 min
- P2 1:26ANADaniel Winnik: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:27ANABen Lovejoy: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:39ANAFrancois Beauchemin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:05LAKDrew Doughty: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 19:46ANARyan Getzlaf: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri10:09
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Selanne – Cogliano – Etem2:49
xG 0.11–0.03 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Steckel – Beleskey – Palmieri2:19
xG 0.06–0.01 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Selanne – Koivu – Ryan2:13
xG 0.03–0.07 (27%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Lovejoy13:40
xG 0.50–0.23 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
- Allen – Sbisa16:21
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin15:04
xG 0.57–1.32 (30%)attempts 13–22goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King11:11
xG 0.55–0.05 (91%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar13:00
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner9:02
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Richardson – Clifford – Nolan6:48
xG 0.30–0.66 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Ellerby9:11
xG 0.89–0.28 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Voynov17:53
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty17:58
xG 0.26–0.48 (36%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).