Sun, Apr 28, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Ottawa Senators 4, Boston Bruins 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 19 | 24 | 422 |
| BOS | 013 | 116 | 17 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:59OTTErik CondraAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 10:33OTTJared CowenAssists: Kyle Turris, Sergei Gonchar · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 19:56BOSRich PeverleyPPAssists: Wade Redden, Dennis Seidenberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 0:14BOSDennis SeidenbergAssists: Milan Lucic, Kaspars Daugavins · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 16:26OTTJean-Gabriel PageauGWGAssists: Marc Methot, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:23OTTKyle TurrisENAssists: Erik Karlsson, Daniel Alfredsson · Wrist, 0.71 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:53OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:25BOSCarl Soderberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:36OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:36BOSMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00BOSBrad Marchand: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:20BOSShawn Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:20OTTErik Condra: Interference2 min
- P2 18:00OTTCory Conacher: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Campbell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Conacher – Pageau9:44
xG 0.53–0.15 (78%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris7:47
xG 0.30–0.18 (62%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Latendresse – Silfverberg – Zibanejad9:48
xG 0.09–0.23 (29%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Smith10:43
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Wiercioch3:01
xG 0.27–0.08 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Cowen10:47
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Gonchar – Wiercioch5:56
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Campbell – Paille9:12
xG 0.50–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Daugavins8:58
xG 0.30–0.05 (86%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Seguin10:11
xG 0.34–0.16 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Peverley6:58
xG 0.14–0.52 (21%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Seidenberg16:33
xG 0.88–0.24 (79%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Redden – McQuaid11:32
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ference – Boychuk17:59
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 20–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).