Mon, Apr 15, 2013·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 09 | 07 | 016 | 032 |
| TOR | 03 | 02 | 28 | 213 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 13:28TORPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 19:23TORJay McClementENAssists: Mark Fraser, James Reimer · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:49NJDMarek Zidlicky: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:34TORColton Orr: Charging2 min
- P2 3:59NJDSteve Sullivan: Holding2 min
- P2 7:10TORRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
- P2 9:59TORRyan O'Byrne: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:56TORRyan O'Byrne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:20NJDMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:39TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:39NJDStephen Gionta: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Henrique
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestZubrus – Clarkson – Henrique11:41
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Zajac – D'Agostini2:31
xG 0.21–0.06 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Elias – Sullivan – Zajac6:53
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter8:51
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Zidlicky13:31
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 23–3goals 0–0
- Fayne – Harrold9:13
xG 0.50–0.14 (78%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson15:07
xG 0.61–0.39 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:12
xG 0.43–0.45 (49%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – McLaren4:45
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Komarov8:43
xG 0.09–0.24 (27%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Frattin – Kadri10:00
xG 0.05–0.67 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Gardiner12:54
xG 0.23–0.46 (33%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne11:59
xG 0.18–0.60 (23%)attempts 4–22goals 0–0
- Franson – Fraser13:23
xG 0.18–0.63 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).