Mon, Apr 15, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Philadelphia Flyers 7, Montréal Canadiens 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 217 | 412 | 14 | 733 |
| MTL | 18 | 210 | 010 | 328 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45PHISean CouturierAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 5:49PHIErik GustafssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 19:02MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Tomas Plekanec, P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 0:38MTLBrendan GallagherPPAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 1:02PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Claude Giroux, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 7:30PHIScott HartnellPPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P2 9:11MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Davis Drewiske, Lars Eller · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–3
- P2 10:46PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P2 19:27PHIScott HartnellPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds · Tip-in, 0.07 xG6–3
- P3 12:45PHIScott HartnellAssists: Brayden Schenn, Daniel Brière · Snap, 0.05 xG7–3
Penalties (24)
- P1 6:11PHIKurtis Foster: Instigator2 min
- P1 6:11PHIKurtis Foster: Instigator face shield2 min
- P1 6:11PHIKurtis Foster: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:11MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:11MTLRyan White: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P1 6:11PHIKurtis Foster: Misconduct10 min
- P1 12:30PHIJay Rosehill: Boarding2 min
- P1 17:26PHIOliver Lauridsen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:23PHIOliver Lauridsen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:44PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:08MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:25PHISean Couturier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:30MTLAlex Galchenyuk: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 0:46MTLDavid Desharnais: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:38MTLTomas Plekanec: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:38PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38MTLTomas Plekanec: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:18PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:18PHIJay Rosehill: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:18PHIJay Rosehill: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:18MTLMax Pacioretty: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:49MTLP.K. Subban: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00MTLLars Eller: Slashing5 min
- P3 0:00MTLLars Eller: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier4:53
xG 0.44–0.14 (77%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Gagne – Giroux – Voracek7:12
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 3–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Schenn6:13
xG 0.20–0.09 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Hall – Fedotenko – Couturier4:01
xG 0.22–0.21 (52%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gustafsson4:00
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Schenn – Gustafsson3:50
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Schenn – Lauridsen4:54
xG 0.43–0.41 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 2–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher10:11
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Ryder – Eller – Galchenyuk2:10
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Ryder – Plekanec – Bourque3:23
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Gionta – Eller – Galchenyuk3:37
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Drewiske3:24
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Drewiske – Beaulieu6:00
xG 0.50–0.50 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Markov7:23
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).