Mon, Apr 15, 2013·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 04 | 17 | 17 | 218 |
| CHI | 113 | 19 | 36 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:54CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Marian Hossa, Brandon Saad · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 12:14CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Michal Handzus, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–2
- P2 14:12DALJamie BennAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 3:07DALJamie BennAssists: Ray Whitney, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 4:31CHIAndrew ShawGWGAssists: Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 7:46CHINiklas HjalmarssonAssists: Marian Hossa, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 19:33CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 7:56DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:25DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 4:05DALErik Cole: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:33CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:56DALTom Wandell: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 19:44CHIBrent Seabrook: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44DALRyan Garbutt: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:44CHIBrent Seabrook: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Eriksson – Benn9:48
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 6–4goals 2–1
- Wandell – Roussel – Garbutt2:57
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Eakin – Fraser4:47
xG 0.02–0.15 (13%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Eakin – Fraser – Garbutt5:44
xG 0.14–0.31 (32%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Robidas – Dillon3:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Dillon14:55
xG 0.41–0.61 (41%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Daley – Larsen2:59
xG 0.11–0.32 (25%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Toews – Saad9:39
xG 0.65–0.04 (94%)attempts 13–2goals 2–0
- Handzus – Frolik – Bollig7:02
xG 0.31–0.13 (70%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Bickell – Stalberg – Shaw9:59
xG 0.21–0.17 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bolland – Kane – Kruger9:54
xG 0.29–0.33 (47%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Oduya12:42
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Keith – Hjalmarsson16:15
xG 0.77–0.44 (64%)attempts 14–10goals 3–2
- Seabrook – Leddy12:56
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).