Mon, Apr 15, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Colorado Avalanche 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 19 | 211 | 13 | 430 |
| COL | 07 | 113 | 27 | 05 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:57COLCody McLeodAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly · Backhand, 0.37 xG0–1
- P2 12:35CBJMark LetestuAssists: Vinny Prospal · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 2:32CBJBlake ComeauAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Jared Boll · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 5:21COLCody McLeodAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 17:58COLJamie McGinnPPAssists: Stefan Elliott, Paul Stastny · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 18:33CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 4:31CBJNick FolignoGWGAssists: Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P2 13:17COLBrad Malone: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:17CBJJames Wisniewski: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:27CBJMarian Gaborik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 17:34CBJNikita Nikitin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:02COLShane O'Brien: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen12:45
xG 0.57–0.20 (74%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Letestu12:12
xG 0.47–0.42 (53%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:35
xG 0.37–0.65 (36%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Boll6:56
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout4:19
xG 0.29–0.01 (95%)attempts 9–1goals 2–0
- Tyutin – Johnson13:05
xG 0.39–0.30 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson6:03
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog14:48
xG 1.56–0.38 (81%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Parenteau – Mitchell – Duchene12:07
xG 0.61–0.35 (63%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Jones – Stastny – McGinn13:29
xG 0.16–0.23 (42%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Kobasew – Bordeleau – Malone5:51
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Barrie18:03
xG 1.72–0.70 (71%)attempts 24–23goals 2–1
- O'Brien – Hunwick14:12
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Hejda – Elliott14:36
xG 0.50–0.79 (39%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).