Tue, Apr 16, 2013·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Florida Panthers 2, New York Islanders 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 18 | 18 | 012 | 228 |
| NYI | 315 | 29 | 07 | 531 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Matt Martin, Thomas Hickey · Deflected, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:59NYIMark StreitPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen · Slap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 16:47NYIMichael GrabnerPPGWGAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Evgeni Nabokov · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–3
- P1 18:12FLADmitry KulikovPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 3:19NYIRadek MartinekAssists: Jesse Joensuu, Mark Streit · Slap, 0.04 xG1–4
- P2 3:33NYIMichael GrabnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–5
- P2 7:44FLAMarcel GocAssists: Tomas Kopecky, Tomas Fleischmann · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:15NYIJosh Bailey: Holding2 min
- P1 12:11FLATyson Strachan: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:55FLAErik Gudbranson: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 16:58NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 16:58FLATJ Brennan: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:58NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:15NYIAndrew MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:22NYITravis Hamonic: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:09NYIJesse Joensuu: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Aucoin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestUpshall – Skille – Bjugstad7:38
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Parros – Shore – Howden4:44
xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann9:47
xG 0.49–0.60 (45%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Matthias – Rallo – Huberdeau6:48
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrennan – Gudbranson2:46
xG 0.64–0.22 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Weaver – Brennan2:45
xG 0.20–0.03 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Weaver – Kulikov9:05
xG 0.53–0.48 (53%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestAucoin – McDonald – Grabner7:40
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Okposo – Bailey10:45
xG 0.41–0.09 (81%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Moulson – Tavares11:32
xG 0.69–0.44 (61%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Joensuu – Martin – Cizikas3:17
xG 0.04–0.07 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Streit16:11
xG 1.18–0.24 (83%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
- Visnovsky – Hickey12:29
xG 0.98–0.30 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic12:34
xG 0.56–0.73 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).