Tue, Apr 16, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 04 | 210 | 02 | 0 | 327 |
| WPG | 113 | 211 | 08 | 04 | 2 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:23WPGAndrew LaddAssists: Blake Wheeler, Bryan Little · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:27TBLMartin St. LouisUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 8:37WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Andrew Ladd, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 17:54WPGAndrew LaddPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 5:19TBLPierre-Cedric LabrieAssists: Nate Thompson, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–3
- P3 11:17TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. WPG Blake Wheeler stopped
- 2. TBL Teddy Purcell stopped
- 3. WPG Mike Santorelli scored
- 4. TBL Richard Panik stopped
- 5. WPG Andrew Ladd scored
Penalties (6)
- P2 5:42WPGOlli Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:13TBLNate Thompson: Boarding2 min
- P2 13:13WPGEric Tangradi: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:13TBLNate Thompson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 15:56TBLVincent Lecavalier: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:35TBLSami Salo: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Burmistrov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCrombeen – Tyrell – Labrie8:39
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Purcell – Stamkos14:36
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 14–15goals 2–2
- Thompson – Killorn – Panik10:37
xG 0.17–0.61 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Malone – Pouliot9:01
xG 0.30–0.89 (25%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAulie – Gudas8:36
xG 0.89–0.66 (58%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Brewer – Hedman2:59
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Carle16:21
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov12:21
xG 1.10–0.40 (73%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wellwood – Kane12:04
xG 0.65–0.24 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little11:32
xG 0.41–0.29 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 2–1
- Thorburn – Gagnon – Wright5:33
xG 0.02–0.23 (8%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Postma12:32
xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian15:52
xG 0.58–0.68 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 2–2
- Byfuglien – Clitsome17:13
xG 0.53–1.05 (33%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).