Tue, Apr 16, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Los Angeles Kings 2, San Jose Sharks 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 218 | 012 | 02 | 0 | 243 |
| SJS | 09 | 214 | 011 | 01 | 1 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:48SJSBrent BurnsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 9:30SJSTJ GaliardiAssists: Brent Burns, Joe Thornton · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 13:59LAKJake MuzzinPPAssists: Slava Voynov, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 18:41LAKDustin BrownAssists: Robyn Regehr, Anze Kopitar · Slap, 0.53 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. SJS Logan Couture stopped
- 2. LAK Jeff Carter stopped
- 3. SJS Dan Boyle stopped
- 4. LAK Anze Kopitar stopped
- 5. SJS Raffi Torres scored
- 6. LAK Mike Richards stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:47LAKAnze Kopitar: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:58LAKJustin Williams: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:58SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:35SJSBrent Burns: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:44SJSTJ Galiardi: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31SJSJason Demers: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:20LAKBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44SJSTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44LAKBrad Richardson: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:06LAKDustin Penner: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestStoll – Lewis – King10:48
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar10:40
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Richardson – Clifford – Nolan6:53
xG 0.35–0.57 (38%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Richards – Penner10:17
xG 0.28–0.97 (23%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Ellerby9:50
xG 0.26–0.18 (59%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Regehr – Doughty15:59
xG 0.45–0.72 (38%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Voynov16:14
xG 0.83–1.32 (39%)attempts 13–22goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Burish – Desjardins6:02
xG 0.19–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Torres – Pavelski – Wingels10:42
xG 0.28–0.31 (48%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Couture9:11
xG 0.18–0.28 (39%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Boyle9:28
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Braun11:33
xG 0.38–0.50 (44%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Stuart – Demers7:27
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).