Wed, Apr 17, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Detroit Red Wings 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 08 | 111 | 119 | 238 |
| CGY | 110 | 02 | 25 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:28CGYLee StempniakAssists: Cory Sarich, Sven Baertschi · Snap, 0.30 xG0–1
- P2 12:31DETGustav NyquistAssists: Joakim Andersson, Daniel Cleary · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 2:28CGYSteve BeginUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 12:53CGYSteve BeginSHGWGAssists: Roman Horak · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:18DETJohan FranzenAssists: Kyle Quincey, Brendan Smith · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:20DETDaniel Cleary: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:19CGYMark Giordano: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:19CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:54CGYSven Baertschi: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:03CGYDennis Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 19:30CGYCurtis Glencross: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAndersson – Nyquist – Brunner5:15
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–1goals 0–0
- Cleary – Andersson – Nyquist5:56
xG 0.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 1–0
- Zetterberg – Filppula – Brunner6:10
xG 0.38–0.09 (81%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Cleary – Filppula – Franzen4:24
xG 0.21–0.10 (67%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKindl – DeKeyser12:53
xG 1.04–0.14 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Quincey – Smith11:49
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:11
xG 0.45–0.70 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Stempniak – Baertschi9:51
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Begin – Jackman – Reinhart6:50
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Hanowski – Horak8:59
xG 0.04–0.43 (8%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Glencross – Backlund12:03
xG 0.15–0.67 (18%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSarich – Giordano14:43
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Butler – Brodie2:23
xG 0.04–0.08 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Wideman – Brodie16:44
xG 0.65–0.81 (45%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).