Wed, Apr 17, 2013·Honda Center, Anaheim
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Anaheim Ducks 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 07 | 110 | 19 | 12 | 328 |
| ANA | 111 | 07 | 110 | 00 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:37ANASami VatanenPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 16:38CBJBlake ComeauAssists: James Wisniewski · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:53ANADavid SteckelAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Sheldon Souray · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 9:42CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Dalton Prout · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 2:19CBJFedor TyutinGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Marian Gaborik · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:01CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P1 11:31CBJBlake Comeau: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:21ANACorey Perry: Boarding2 min
- P2 16:38CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:38ANASheldon Souray: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:53CBJJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:53ANADavid Steckel: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:32ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:37CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min
- P3 17:52ANAKyle Palmieri: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Comeau – Boll6:02
xG 0.25–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson11:07
xG 0.42–0.32 (56%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Umberger – Foligno – Johansen12:51
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Letestu12:57
xG 0.34–0.69 (33%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson14:54
xG 0.31–0.11 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Erixon11:05
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Nikitin – Prout11:19
xG 0.42–0.49 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSteckel – Palmieri – Etem2:45
xG 0.36–0.03 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan2:18
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Selanne – Lombardi – Beleskey7:14
xG 0.11–0.06 (64%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Koivu – Ryan – Cogliano9:00
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLydman – Lovejoy17:22
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Allen – Vatanen13:29
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin14:24
xG 0.50–1.11 (31%)attempts 11–22goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).