Thu, Apr 18, 2013·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 3, Philadelphia Flyers 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 114 | 211 | 331 |
| PHI | 09 | 07 | 07 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:36NJDRyan CarterGWGAssists: Stephen Gionta · Snap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P3 14:10NJDMatt D'AgostiniAssists: Jacob Josefson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–0
- P3 18:47NJDAdam HenriqueENAssists: Dainius Zubrus, Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.68 xG3–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 16:27PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P2 11:07PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:16NJDHenrik Tallinder: Holding2 min
- P2 0:00NJDAdam Henrique: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:28NJDMarek Zidlicky: Cross checking2 min
- P3 2:28NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:28PHIOliver Lauridsen: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:13PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:00PHIWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPonikarovsky – D'Agostini – Josefson7:25
xG 0.61–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter9:05
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Zubrus – Clarkson – Henrique10:31
xG 0.26–0.20 (56%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Elias – Sullivan – Zajac10:57
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Fayne2:18
xG 0.54–0.04 (92%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Fayne – Harrold10:23
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky13:40
xG 0.50–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGagne – Giroux – Voracek12:10
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier10:13
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Knuble – Read – Couturier2:24
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hall – Fedotenko4:10
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Gustafsson11:18
xG 0.58–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Manning – Gustafsson4:06
xG 0.13–0.13 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Schenn3:10
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).