Thu, Apr 18, 2013·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Winnipeg Jets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 03 | 112 | 212 | 00 | 327 |
| WPG | 110 | 112 | 17 | 12 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:13WPGZach BogosianAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 8:27WPGPaul PostmaPPAssists: Blake Wheeler, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 10:38CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Justin Faulk, Tim Gleason · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:40WPGBlake WheelerAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 12:22CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Marc-Andre Bergeron, Jordan Staal · Deflected, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 18:48CARAlexander SeminAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Jordan Staal · Wrist, 0.38 xG3–3
- OT 1:23WPGDustin ByfuglienGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:46CARJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P1 2:43CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:03CARChad LaRose: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:23WPGOlli Jokinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:30CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:00CAREric Staal: Interference2 min
- P2 16:19CAREric Staal: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – Dwyer – Staal7:21
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Blanchard – Wallace – Nash3:49
xG 0.02–0.02 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- LaRose – Wallace – Nash2:09
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Staal5:01
xG 0.06–0.47 (12%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBergeron – Faulk4:41
xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- McBain – Sanguinetti6:03
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Gleason – Faulk12:50
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Wellwood – Kane8:44
xG 0.72–0.08 (91%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Santorelli – Tangradi – Burmistrov10:10
xG 0.40–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Ladd – Wheeler – Little12:25
xG 0.74–0.69 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Thorburn – Gagnon – Wright3:45
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Byfuglien10:51
xG 0.40–0.10 (80%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Stuart – Postma10:57
xG 0.32–0.11 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Clitsome2:34
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).