Thu, Apr 18, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Phoenix Coyotes 1, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 08 | 011 | 111 | 04 | 0 | 134 |
| STL | 19 | 011 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58STLDavid PerronAssists: David Backes, Alex Pietrangelo · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 18:53PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Martin Hanzal · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. STL Andy McDonald scored
- 2. PHX Antoine Vermette stopped
- 3. STL Chris Stewart stopped
- 4. PHX Radim Vrbata stopped
- 5. STL Alexander Steen stopped
- 6. PHX Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:05STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:05PHXPaul Bissonnette: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:00PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:41STLChris Porter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 4:11PHXAntoine Vermette: Holding2 min
- P1 15:06STLAlexander Steen: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:05STLAlex Pietrangelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 0:00STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
- P1 0:00PHXRostislav Klesla: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:44STLDavid Backes: Boarding2 min · PPG
- OT 5:00STLRyan Reaves: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Gordon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Gordon – Klinkhammer12:12
xG 0.73–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Bolduc – Conner2:01
xG 0.07–0.13 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Vrbata – Hanzal – Boedker12:08
xG 0.28–0.47 (38%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Doan – Vermette – Conner4:29
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 1–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson16:34
xG 0.91–0.28 (76%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Morris – Yandle14:04
xG 0.81–0.73 (53%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Klesla – Stone12:17
xG 0.74–0.67 (52%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Backes – Perron11:01
xG 0.46–0.14 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- McDonald – Sobotka – Stewart9:46
xG 0.66–0.62 (52%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Porter – Berglund – Schwartz2:30
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Berglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz7:06
xG 0.16–0.30 (35%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:16
xG 0.67–0.57 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Jackman – Polak12:07
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Leopold – Shattenkirk15:03
xG 0.73–1.37 (35%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).