Thu, Apr 18, 2013·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vancouver Canucks 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 012 | 115 | 011 | 138 |
| DAL | 010 | 110 | 410 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:38VANDerek RoyAssists: Ryan Kesler, Jannik Hansen · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 12:09DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Eric Nystrom, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:36DALCody EakinGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Philip Larsen · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 4:09DALJamie BennUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 7:03DALRay WhitneyAssists: Jamie Benn, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 18:18DALErik ColePPAssists: Stephane Robidas, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 5:02DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:00VANDaniel Sedin: Slashing2 min
- P1 6:00DALVernon Fiddler: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:03VANMaxim Lapierre: Interference2 min
- P2 18:47VANDaniel Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00DALStephane Robidas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:04VANHenrik Sedin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:06VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:27DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:01VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:18DALStephane Robidas: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:18VANAndrew Alberts: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Benn won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Kesler – Hansen12:37
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows12:27
xG 0.54–0.46 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Lapierre – Pinizzotto – Weise6:28
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Raymond – Ebbett – Kassian8:20
xG 0.50–1.01 (33%)attempts 12–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Garrison14:16
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Alberts – Ballard10:35
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Barker – Edler14:52
xG 0.71–0.64 (52%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Eakin – Garbutt10:18
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn12:34
xG 0.48–0.51 (48%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
- Wandell – Roussel – Fraser4:36
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Nystrom9:59
xG 0.13–0.48 (21%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon16:52
xG 1.06–0.44 (71%)attempts 19–17goals 1–1
- Robidas – Daley14:02
xG 0.49–0.80 (38%)attempts 9–19goals 2–0
- Rome – Larsen11:16
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 8–22goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).