Fri, Apr 19, 2013·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 1, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 06 | 110 | 122 |
| STL | 19 | 16 | 05 | 220 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10STLChris StewartPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.39 xG0–1
- P2 7:52STLRyan ReavesGWGAssists: Chris Porter · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 4:37DALStephane RobidasAssists: Aaron Rome, Matt Fraser · Slap, 0.02 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:39DALEric Nystrom: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 13:17STLAdam Cracknell: Interference2 min
- P2 1:13DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P2 15:18STLRyan Reaves: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:19DALJamie Benn: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fiddler won the faceoff against Sobotka
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCole – Fiddler – Nystrom10:24
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wandell – Roussel – Fraser7:21
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Whitney – Eriksson – Benn12:43
xG 0.39–0.36 (51%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Smith – Eakin – Garbutt7:32
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon20:53
xG 0.99–0.44 (69%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Robidas – Rome12:18
xG 0.46–0.38 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Larsen – Benn11:57
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:15
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Porter – Cracknell – Reaves7:42
xG 0.12–0.14 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Perron10:55
xG 0.24–0.43 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- McDonald – Sobotka – Stewart10:48
xG 0.18–0.37 (32%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Leopold – Shattenkirk12:52
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Jackman – Pietrangelo2:54
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:38
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).