Fri, Apr 19, 2013·Pepsi Center, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Colorado Avalanche 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 211 | 03 | 424 |
| COL | 119 | 06 | 09 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:33EDMTaylor HallAssists: Jeff Petry, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:29COLPA ParenteauAssists: Shane O'Brien, John Mitchell · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:14EDMJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Magnus Paajarvi · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 5:12EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Jordan Eberle, Nick Schultz · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 14:13EDMJordan EberleAssists: Mark Fistric, Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:27EDMCorey Potter: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:53EDMMark Fistric: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:18EDMNick Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:58COLPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:25COLGreg Zanon: Boarding2 min
- P3 6:36COLCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P3 16:54EDMRyan Smyth: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Smithson – Brown5:28
xG 0.15–0.02 (86%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Eberle – Paajarvi – Nugent-Hopkins10:41
xG 0.53–0.45 (54%)attempts 8–12goals 3–0
- Gagner – Hall – Yakupov10:32
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
- Horcoff – Jones – Lander7:35
xG 0.17–0.22 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmid – Petry12:39
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Schultz9:58
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Potter – Fistric11:41
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Duchene – Landeskog2:40
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Mitchell – Duchene6:42
xG 0.44–0.28 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- McLeod – O'Reilly – Landeskog8:26
xG 0.37–0.33 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Bordeleau – Malone3:26
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Hunwick11:11
xG 0.53–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Hejda – Elliott8:51
xG 0.18–0.16 (52%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Zanon – Barrie12:43
xG 0.36–0.55 (39%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).