Fri, Apr 19, 2013·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 1, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 010 | 115 | 133 |
| CGY | 08 | 113 | 210 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:45CGYRoman HorakAssists: Lee Stempniak, Michael Cammalleri · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P3 3:14CGYBrian McGrattanGWGAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Brett Carson · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 16:19ANACorey PerryAssists: Kyle Palmieri, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 19:09CGYRoman CervenkaENAssists: Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:07ANAEmerson Etem: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:26CGYMatt Stajan: Holding2 min
- P1 12:51ANABen Lovejoy: Interference2 min
- P1 12:51CGYMikael Backlund: Instigator2 min
- P1 12:51ANABen Lovejoy: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:51CGYMikael Backlund: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:51CGYMikael Backlund: Misconduct10 min
- P1 13:24CGYTim Jackman: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:32ANABryan Allen: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:55ANAMatthew Lombardi: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Horak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Palmieri2:53
xG 0.32–0.08 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan12:49
xG 0.44–0.27 (63%)attempts 18–10goals 0–1
- Lombardi – Winnik – Etem2:21
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Dvorak – Winnik7:58
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Vatanen10:57
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Allen – Fowler2:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Souray – Beauchemin16:52
xG 0.53–0.81 (39%)attempts 24–16goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestCammalleri – Stempniak – Horak11:07
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- McGrattan – Reinhart – Cervenka2:23
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Jackman – Reinhart2:43
xG 0.10–0.14 (42%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Baertschi7:30
xG 0.15–0.22 (41%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarson – Brodie14:48
xG 0.51–0.32 (61%)attempts 11–18goals 2–0
- Babchuk – Butler12:20
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
- Sarich – Butler2:33
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).