Sat, Apr 20, 2013·Prudential Center, Newark
Florida Panthers 2, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 27 | 04 | 02 | 213 |
| NJD | 16 | 417 | 110 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11FLAMarcel GocPPAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 7:05FLABrian CampbellAssists: Mike Weaver, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 14:22NJDPatrik EliasPPAssists: Peter Harrold, Martin Brodeur · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 2:09NJDPatrik EliasAssists: David Clarkson, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:45NJDDavid ClarksonGWGAssists: Travis Zajac, Alexei Ponikarovsky · Snap, 0.11 xG2–3
- P2 14:11NJDRyan CarterAssists: Steve Bernier, Stephen Gionta · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P2 17:44NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Ryan Carter · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 10:28NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Adam Larsson, Andy Greene · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:43NJDRyan Carter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:36FLAAlexander Petrovic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:11NJDDavid Clarkson: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:39NJDMarek Zidlicky: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 8:20FLATomas Kopecky: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:16FLAMike Weaver: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goc won the faceoff against Gionta
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Parros – Skille – Shore6:14
xG 0.07–0.34 (16%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Upshall – Matthias – Howden14:19
xG 0.05–0.52 (8%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Kopecky – Goc – Fleischmann11:13
xG 0.49–1.02 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–2
- Rallo – Bjugstad – Huberdeau13:23
xG 0.05–1.11 (4%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brennan – Petrovic15:13
xG 0.04–0.38 (9%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Kuba – Kulikov14:05
xG 0.13–0.84 (13%)attempts 5–12goals 0–3
- Campbell – Weaver16:27
xG 0.53–2.04 (21%)attempts 7–17goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Clarkson – Zajac10:59
xG 0.99–0.14 (87%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter9:50
xG 0.60–0.01 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Zubrus – Kovalchuk – Henrique12:14
xG 0.69–0.52 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ponikarovsky – D'Agostini – Josefson7:47
xG 0.05–0.00 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Harrold13:07
xG 1.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0
- Tallinder – Zidlicky15:38
xG 0.75–0.22 (77%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
- Greene – Larsson17:13
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).