Sat, Apr 20, 2013·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 5, Montréal Canadiens 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 29 | 26 | 110 | 525 |
| MTL | 09 | 012 | 115 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 5:57WSHTroy BrouwerGWGAssists: Karl Alzner, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 3:49WSHTroy BrouwerAssists: Marcus Johansson, Mike Ribeiro · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 7:50WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–0
- P3 13:23WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Mike Green, Mike Ribeiro · Slap, 0.04 xG5–0
- P3 14:51MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Josh Gorges · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:20WSHMatt Hendricks: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:02WSHSteve Oleksy: Interference2 min
- P2 0:18WSHMartin Erat: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:11MTLDavid Desharnais: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 10:23WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:41WSHMike Ribeiro: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 12:05MTLTomas Plekanec: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:10MTLBrian Gionta: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:10WSHJack Hillen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:11MTLP.K. Subban: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson11:28
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Chimera – Fehr – Perreault8:57
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Erat – Brouwer10:28
xG 0.06–0.34 (16%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Beagle – Volpatti7:45
xG 0.46–0.94 (33%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hillen – Oleksy15:20
xG 0.68–0.73 (48%)attempts 14–16goals 1–1
- Erskine – Carlson12:39
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Green – Alzner14:10
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty11:03
xG 0.59–0.10 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Halpern – Moen – Bourque3:30
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Ryder – Prust – Desharnais4:29
xG 0.36–0.19 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Prust2:38
xG 0.20–0.08 (70%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weber7:02
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Weber5:34
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bouillon – Subban6:36
xG 0.09–0.06 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).