Sat, Apr 20, 2013·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Ottawa Senators 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 05 | 29 | 28 | 422 |
| OTT | 018 | 117 | 015 | 150 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:22TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Cody Franson, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 12:24TORJames van RiemsdykPPGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Cody Franson · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 19:17OTTJakob SilfverbergAssists: Cory Conacher · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 14:10TORNazem KadriAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 18:12TORJoffrey LupulUnassisted · Snap, 0.21 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:50OTTMatt Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:50TORFrazer McLaren: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:35TORJames van Riemsdyk: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:35OTTKyle Turris: Diving2 min
- P1 9:31TORMark Fraser: Interference2 min
- P2 4:44OTTChris Neil: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:32OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:24TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:50OTTColin Greening: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Grabovski – Komarov5:29
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McClement – Komarov – Kulemin2:28
xG 0.02–0.06 (20%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak14:45
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Lupul – Kulemin – Kadri10:11
xG 0.31–1.20 (20%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Fraser17:58
xG 0.54–0.91 (37%)attempts 11–24goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gunnarsson11:48
xG 0.20–0.77 (20%)attempts 9–22goals 1–1
- Liles – O'Byrne11:52
xG 0.19–0.84 (19%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGreening – Condra – Pageau9:39
xG 1.49–0.15 (91%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Conacher – Zibanejad8:51
xG 0.55–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–3goals 1–1
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Turris13:41
xG 0.65–0.35 (65%)attempts 22–11goals 0–1
- Neil – Kassian – Smith9:35
xG 0.23–0.18 (57%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGryba – Cowen13:05
xG 2.13–0.43 (83%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Gonchar – Wiercioch13:32
xG 0.63–0.13 (83%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Phillips – Methot18:06
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 25–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).