Tue, Apr 23, 2013·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 111 | 010 | 312 | 433 |
| PIT | 112 | 09 | 121 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:49BUFThomas VanekAssists: Cody Hodgson, Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:09PITChris KunitzAssists: Brandon Sutter, Matt Cooke · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 6:11BUFJochen HechtAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mark Pysyk · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 11:02PITJarome IginlaPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 17:26BUFSteve OttGWGAssists: Mark Pysyk · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 19:27BUFThomas VanekENAssists: Cody Hodgson, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.76 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:25BUFThomas Vanek: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:25PITJussi Jokinen: Holding2 min
- P2 17:44BUFMike Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 17:44BUFSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:49BUFAdam Pardy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:30BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Porter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Ott – Grigorenko10:03
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Vanek – Stafford – Hodgson16:09
xG 0.68–0.63 (52%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Gerbe – Scott – Foligno5:45
xG 0.10–0.08 (57%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Porter – Ennis – Flynn12:36
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Pysyk14:39
xG 0.69–0.30 (70%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Ehrhoff – Sekera20:57
xG 0.71–1.00 (42%)attempts 17–34goals 0–0
- Weber – Ruhwedel13:40
xG 0.40–0.72 (35%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Dupuis – Malkin11:45
xG 0.85–0.19 (82%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Jeffrey7:14
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Morrow – Jokinen – Bennett8:01
xG 0.16–0.27 (37%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Cooke – Kunitz – Sutter11:10
xG 0.33–0.82 (29%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Letang2:17
xG 0.41–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eaton – Letang3:57
xG 0.30–0.06 (83%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eaton – Niskanen2:37
xG 0.20–0.02 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).