Sun, Apr 21, 2013·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 0, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 010 | 010 | 08 | 028 |
| BOS | 17 | 121 | 111 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03BOSJaromir JagrGWGAssists: Chris Kelly, Carl Soderberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 13:33BOSDougie HamiltonAssists: Shawn Thornton · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 18:38BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Tyler Seguin, Patrice Bergeron · Backhand, 0.74 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:47BOSRich Peverley: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:18FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:32FLAFilip Kuba: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:45BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Campbell won the faceoff against Matthias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestGoc – Fleischmann – Huberdeau10:57
xG 0.78–0.47 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Skille – Matthias – Howden4:17
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Goc – Fleischmann – Howden2:06
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Upshall – Shore – Bjugstad9:46
xG 0.35–0.49 (41%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Kulikov11:47
xG 0.40–0.41 (49%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Campbell – Brennan4:23
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kuba – Petrovic2:35
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Seguin11:14
xG 0.93–0.36 (72%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille9:53
xG 0.78–0.53 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Krejci – Peverley – Lucic9:49
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Kelly – Soderberg10:31
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – Boychuk16:15
xG 1.43–0.74 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton15:36
xG 0.94–0.45 (67%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
- Redden – Seidenberg13:14
xG 0.40–0.35 (53%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).