Sun, Apr 21, 2013·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Calgary Flames 4, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 15 | 17 | 212 | 424 |
| MIN | 114 | 011 | 010 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:37CGYMark CundariPPAssists: TJ Brodie, Michael Cammalleri · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 18:44MINZach PariseAssists: Charlie Coyle, Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 8:50CGYMikael BacklundGWGAssists: Lee Stempniak, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
- P3 12:40CGYMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Mark Cundari, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 19:28CGYJiri HudlerENAssists: Max Reinhart, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:38CGYMichael Cammalleri: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:44CGYTim Jackman: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:38MINMikael Granlund: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 6:06CGYCory Sarich: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:06MINClayton Stoner: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:06CGYLee Stempniak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:01MINTom Gilbert: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:02MINCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Stajan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stempniak – Byron – Street10:44
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Stajan – Hanowski10:16
xG 0.06–0.38 (13%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Backlund – Baertschi9:55
xG 0.26–0.59 (31%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hudler – Horak – Reinhart10:19
xG 0.14–0.60 (19%)attempts 4–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Cundari3:51
xG 0.46–0.06 (88%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Carson – Brodie3:03
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Butler – Brodie4:40
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestKoivu – Parise – Coyle15:18
xG 1.21–0.05 (96%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Clutterbuck – Granlund4:40
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Pominville – Bouchard – Brodziak11:15
xG 0.29–0.31 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Cullen – Setoguchi – Zucker7:43
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin18:51
xG 1.02–0.18 (85%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon5:52
xG 0.70–0.07 (90%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Spurgeon3:21
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).