Sun, Apr 21, 2013·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 210 | 15 | 422 |
| SJS | 013 | 114 | 28 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:53CBJMark LetestuAssists: Jack Johnson, Vinny Prospal · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 4:27CBJVinny ProspalAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 7:14SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Logan Couture, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 12:42CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 6:34SJSAndrew DesjardinsAssists: Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 14:57SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Scott Gomez, Matt Irwin · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:23CBJRyan JohansenGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:59CBJDerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:11SJSMatt Irwin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:13SJSMatt Irwin: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:36CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00CBJMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – Foligno – Johansen13:23
xG 0.88–0.23 (79%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Comeau – Dubinsky – Atkinson12:07
xG 0.34–0.26 (57%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Boll – Gillies3:40
xG 0.01–0.32 (4%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Letestu12:52
xG 0.39–0.98 (28%)attempts 8–24goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Wisniewski17:21
xG 0.87–0.44 (66%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- Aucoin – Erixon12:35
xG 0.37–0.43 (46%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Johnson – Prout19:51
xG 0.40–1.47 (22%)attempts 13–28goals 1–2
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Couture11:23
xG 0.80–0.26 (75%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Thornton – Burish – Desjardins2:06
xG 0.15–0.03 (83%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Torres – Pavelski – Wingels9:38
xG 0.46–0.39 (54%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Gomez – Burish – Desjardins4:31
xG 0.07–0.09 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun13:04
xG 0.93–0.21 (82%)attempts 24–6goals 1–1
- Boyle – Irwin10:40
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Hannan – Stuart9:42
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).