Sun, Apr 21, 2013·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Dallas Stars 3, Los Angeles Kings 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 210 | 112 | 00 | 327 |
| LAK | 19 | 17 | 111 | 14 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06LAKMike RichardsAssists: Dustin Penner, Jeff Carter · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 4:12LAKDustin BrownAssists: Anze Kopitar, Justin Williams · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 4:32DALLoui ErikssonAssists: Ray Whitney, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 14:54DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–2
- P3 0:43DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Cody Eakin, Reilly Smith · Slap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 2:59LAKDustin BrownPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.32 xG3–3
- OT 4:08LAKJeff CarterGWGAssists: Mike Richards, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–4
Penalties (14)
- P1 5:18DALReilly Smith: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 9:11DALBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P1 12:53LAKDrew Doughty: Holding2 min
- P1 16:33LAKKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:09DALErik Cole: Holding2 min
- P2 5:37DALAaron Rome: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35DALRyan Garbutt: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:41LAKDustin Penner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 15:01LAKMike Richards: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:01DALVernon Fiddler: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:22DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:21LAKBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:09LAKDustin Brown: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:09DALPhilip Larsen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stoll won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestWhitney – Eriksson – Benn12:08
xG 1.22–0.70 (63%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- Smith – Eakin – Garbutt8:38
xG 0.42–0.21 (66%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Cole – Fiddler – Nystrom8:26
xG 0.05–0.34 (12%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Wandell – Roussel – MacDermid2:21
xG 0.00–0.43 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Dillon13:58
xG 1.57–0.75 (68%)attempts 18–19goals 2–2
- Robidas – Daley14:11
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Rome – Larsen6:17
xG 0.00–0.52 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Clifford – Nolan5:50
xG 0.26–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Williams – Brown – Kopitar9:25
xG 0.70–0.76 (48%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Stoll – Lewis – King6:59
xG 0.58–0.67 (46%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Carter – Richards – Penner7:52
xG 0.16–0.52 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin8:05
xG 0.79–0.13 (86%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Regehr – Doughty13:32
xG 0.40–0.79 (34%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Scuderi – Voynov11:47
xG 0.70–1.09 (39%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).